How much do methane emission from livestock (predominantly cows!) contribute to global warming. These emissions are politely called ruminants. Stephen Levitt's new book "Superfreakanomics" (which is getting alot of coverage currently) states:
"The world's ruminants are responsible for about 50 percent more greenhouse gases than the entire transportation sector"
.... really ?
Methane accounts for about 16% of global GHG emissions. How much of this is from ruminants ? I found it difficult to get an exact figure. This source implies 40% is from natural sources. US EPA data says that about 24% of the US's methane are from ruminants. So, going with the higher figure, ruminants account for about 4%.
Transport emissions are about 13.5% of total looking at this graph. The graph also confirms my calculation is roughly right... by stating that about 5% of GHG emissons are attributable to livestock. So, much as I like Stephen Levitt's work .... in this case I think he is way out !
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
DB: Is the age of oil coming to an end ?
Today Deutsche Bank released a report claiming the end of oil is nigh:
http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2009/10/06/deutsche-the-end-is-nigh-for-the-age-of-oil/
The report is certainly thought-provoking, there are a couple of things I would disagree with.
Future Demand
The report suggests (DB suggest that demand will fall from 84 million barrels per day currently to 79 million barrels per day in 2030. This is in contrast with IEA / EIA estimates of around 110+ million barrels per day in 2030.
If we remained as oil intensive per unit GDP as we are today, we would be around 130 million barrels per day in 2030 ... although it is likely that electrification / efficiency will mean this level is not achieved, I think the chances of demand actually falling are slim.
What about climate change ? Won't that require us to having falling oil demand ... well not according to the 450 ppm CO2 stabilization scenario that the IEA published in its 2008 WEO ... that still foresaw an increase in demand to 2030.
OPEC's behavior
DB also suggest that oil supply will remain tight due to the under-investment leading (among other factors) to peak supply in 6 years and $175/barrel oil. However, I think OPEC are well aware of the potential damage they will do if they don't invest in new supply to keep prices down. OPEC are aware of the consequences of $100+/barrel ... and I think will act to ensure enough of their vast reserves come online to ensure that prices don't sky-rocket in the long term
Summary
All in all I think it is a thoughtful report ... certainly food for thought for people who think oil demand and oil prices can only go up. Future demand is uncertain ... future supply is even more so - which means the intersection of these (the future price) is very difficult to predict.
http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2009/10/06/deutsche-the-end-is-nigh-for-the-age-of-oil/
The report is certainly thought-provoking, there are a couple of things I would disagree with.
Future Demand
The report suggests (DB suggest that demand will fall from 84 million barrels per day currently to 79 million barrels per day in 2030. This is in contrast with IEA / EIA estimates of around 110+ million barrels per day in 2030.
If we remained as oil intensive per unit GDP as we are today, we would be around 130 million barrels per day in 2030 ... although it is likely that electrification / efficiency will mean this level is not achieved, I think the chances of demand actually falling are slim.
What about climate change ? Won't that require us to having falling oil demand ... well not according to the 450 ppm CO2 stabilization scenario that the IEA published in its 2008 WEO ... that still foresaw an increase in demand to 2030.
OPEC's behavior
DB also suggest that oil supply will remain tight due to the under-investment leading (among other factors) to peak supply in 6 years and $175/barrel oil. However, I think OPEC are well aware of the potential damage they will do if they don't invest in new supply to keep prices down. OPEC are aware of the consequences of $100+/barrel ... and I think will act to ensure enough of their vast reserves come online to ensure that prices don't sky-rocket in the long term
Summary
All in all I think it is a thoughtful report ... certainly food for thought for people who think oil demand and oil prices can only go up. Future demand is uncertain ... future supply is even more so - which means the intersection of these (the future price) is very difficult to predict.
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