The Oil Gap in 2030

There are lots of uncertainties about world oil production. I think there is general agreement that the era of "easy oil" is over and that there are no more giant discoveries to be made. A typical production scenario is shown below:



The actual shape of the production peak is a source of much argument. Some think that we will be able to maintain a 90MBarrel peak until well into 2020's. I'm going to assume the graph above holds ... there is uncertainty, but its a plausible scenario.

Currently, total demand for oil is 85 Million Barrels/day. Conventional crude (as can be seen above) supplies about 75 Million of that, with the remainder being unconventional - right now gas condensate

EIA estimates a demand for oil in 2030 to be 118 Million Barrels/day.

The chart above suggests we will be able to supply less than 50 MBarrels from conventional crude. Where are the other 68 MBarrels going to come from ? A very optimistic estimate for biofuels contribution is 8 MBarrels. That leaves a 60 MBarrels gap. Some of that will be filled by gas condensate production, but it looks like we are either going to have generate HUGE amounts of oil from gas or coal (not too good for the climate), or else reduce that demand figure drastically (through much higher oil prices).

I'd prefer to see that demand figure reduced ... through electric vehicles and efficency measures.

Assuming 2kg of CO2 / barrel of crude. 118 MBarrels / day, implies 8.6 GTCO2/year just from oil. That just doesn't correspond with stabilising CO2 emissions at 450-550ppm, which is the stated aim of the EU.